Solo Mining Bitcoin vs Bitcoin Cash: Odds, Rewards, and Real Wait Times
A clear-eyed look at the lottery ticket that is actually worth buying
There is only one Bitcoin. Everything else is a clone, a fork, or a polite attempt to recreate the same immaculate conception with different marketing. That is not an insult; it is a statement about network effects, security budget, and the fact that digital scarcity does not multiply when you copy the code. Bitcoin Cash is one of those clones. It uses the same SHA-256 algorithm, the same proof-of-work, the same 10-minute target block time, and the same current subsidy of 3.125 coins. The machines that dig for one dig for the other. The difference is almost entirely one of scale.
That scale is the entire story of solo mining.
The size of the arena
Bitcoin’s network currently sits around 1,050–1,070 EH/s. Bitcoin Cash is running at roughly 3.0–3.1 EH/s. The ratio is on the order of 340–350 times. When you point a miner at one chain or the other, you are not choosing different physics. You are choosing how many other people are already in the room trying to solve the same puzzle.
Solo mining means you keep the entire block reward if you find it. There is no pool to smooth the variance. You either find the block or you find nothing. The probability of finding any given block is simply your hashrate divided by the network hashrate. Over a day (roughly 144 blocks) the expected number of blocks you find is that fraction multiplied by 144. For small hashrates the chance of finding at least one block is almost identical to that expected number.
The numbers that actually matter
Here is what a few common home or small-office hashrates look like right now, using ~1,060 EH/s for Bitcoin and ~3.03 EH/s for Bitcoin Cash:
| Your hashrate | BTC daily odds | BTC expected wait | BCH daily odds | BCH expected wait |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 TH/s | ~1 in 3.7 million | ~10,000 years | ~1 in 10,500 | ~29 years |
| 4 TH/s | ~1 in 1.8 million | ~5,000 years | ~1 in 5,300 | ~14 years |
| 10 TH/s | ~1 in 736,000 | ~2,000 years | ~1 in 2,100 | ~6 years |
| 100 TH/s | ~1 in 74,000 | ~200 years | ~1 in 210 | ~7 months |
These are statistical averages, not schedules. You can find a block on the first day or never. The median wait is shorter than the mean (roughly 70 % of it) because the distribution is exponential, but the qualitative picture does not change.
The prize versus the ticket price
A Bitcoin block is currently worth roughly $250,000 (3.125 BTC at ~$80,500). A Bitcoin Cash block is worth roughly $860 (3.125 BCH at ~$275–280). The ratio of prize sizes is about 290 times in Bitcoin’s favor. The ratio of probabilities is about 350 times in Bitcoin Cash’s favor. The two effects almost cancel for the pure expected value of the lottery ticket, but they do not cancel for the experience of actually mining.
With a few terahashes you are buying a ticket whose expected payout, in pure dollar terms, is similar on either chain. On Bitcoin the ticket is so unlikely that you are effectively buying a story. On Bitcoin Cash you are buying a ticket that a patient human being might actually see pay out during their lifetime if they keep the machine running and the electricity is cheap enough. That is the practical distinction.
Electricity and hardware cost the same either way. A modern efficient ASIC or a small home miner (Bitaxe-class, NerdQAxe, Avalon Nano, etc.) does not care which chain it is pointed at. The decision is purely which lottery you prefer to play.
What “worth it” actually means
Solo mining is never a business model for a few terahashes. It is a lottery with educational side effects and a non-zero (though small) chance of a windfall. Pool mining converts the same hashrate into a steady, tiny stream of sats. That stream is positive expected value only if your electricity is cheap and your machine is efficient; for most home setups it is closer to an expensive hobby that happens to produce a few dollars a day in the best case.
On Bitcoin the solo lottery is so long that even a 100 TH/s machine is still measuring its expected wait in centuries. On Bitcoin Cash the same machine is measuring it in months. That does not make Bitcoin Cash “better money.” It makes the mining lottery less absurd for people who are not running industrial fleets.
There is also a second-order effect: because Bitcoin Cash’s hashrate is so small, it can swing by 20–30 % in a single day when large pools point machines at it or pull them away. Your odds are therefore less stable than the table suggests. Bitcoin’s hashrate moves more slowly.
The practical takeaway
If your goal is to accumulate the scarce digital asset that the rest of the world is actually treating as money, you buy Bitcoin and you mine it only if you can do so profitably in a pool (or if you enjoy the hobby). If your goal is to experience the moment of actually finding a block with hardware you can plug into a wall outlet, Bitcoin Cash is the only realistic SHA-256 target at home scale. Everything else with lower difficulty is either smaller, less liquid, or both.
The machines do not care. The protocol rules are almost identical. The difference is simply how many other people are already in the race. On Bitcoin the race is planetary. On Bitcoin Cash it is still large, but no longer planetary. That is why the odds move from “effectively never” to “possibly in a decade or two” when you switch chains with the same 2–4 TH/s.
There is only one Bitcoin. There are, however, many lotteries that happen to use the same hashing algorithm. Choose the one whose expected wait matches the amount of time you are willing to wait.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is solo mining Bitcoin profitable?
For a home miner, no. Solo mining is a lottery, not a business model. You either find the whole block reward or you earn nothing, and at 2 to 4 TH/s the expected wait on Bitcoin is measured in thousands of years.
What are the odds of solo mining a Bitcoin block?
With 2 TH/s against roughly 1,060 EH/s, the daily odds are about 1 in 3.7 million, an expected wait near 10,000 years. With 100 TH/s, the daily odds improve to about 1 in 74,000, still an expected wait near 200 years.
Why is solo mining Bitcoin Cash more realistic than Bitcoin?
Both chains use SHA-256 with the same 10 minute block target and the same 3.125 coin subsidy, but Bitcoin Cash runs at roughly 3.03 EH/s versus Bitcoin’s 1,060 EH/s. The same 100 TH/s machine has an expected wait near 7 months on Bitcoin Cash instead of 200 years on Bitcoin.
Do you keep the whole block reward when solo mining?
Yes. There is no pool to split with, so a solo miner who finds a block keeps the full reward: currently about $250,000 on Bitcoin and about $860 on Bitcoin Cash at the prices in this article.
Can the same miner mine Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash?
Yes. Both chains use SHA-256, so the same ASIC or home miner (Bitaxe, NerdQAxe, Avalon Nano) can point at either chain. Electricity and hardware cost the same either way; only the odds and the prize change.
Should I solo mine or join a pool?
Join a pool if you want a steady, predictable payout instead of a lottery ticket. But be honest about the math: pool mining from home is very rarely profitable. The steady stream of sats is usually small, and for most home setups it does not cover the electricity bill. Pool mining makes sense as a hobby, or if your power is very cheap. It does not turn a home miner into an income stream. Solo mine only if you accept the lottery: long odds, zero payout most of the time, and a real but unlikely windfall.
Does solo mining Bitcoin Cash make it better money than Bitcoin?
No. A shorter expected wait makes the mining lottery less absurd at home scale, but it does not change which asset the world treats as scarce money. There is only one Bitcoin; Bitcoin Cash is a fork running the same algorithm at a much smaller scale.
