{"id":2077,"date":"2026-10-01T21:43:37","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:43:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/neverlosebitcoin.com\/?p=2077"},"modified":"2026-10-01T21:43:39","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T21:43:39","slug":"exchange-hack-recovery-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/neverlosebitcoin.com\/fr\/exchange-hack-recovery-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Exchange Hacks: What Actually Gets Recovered"},"content":{"rendered":"

Will the money come back?<\/h2>\n

Every exchange hack ends with the same question. Will the funds be recovered?<\/p>\n

We stopped guessing and built a dataset. Nine major exchange hacks, from 2014 to 2025, plus two fraud collapses for comparison. Every number below traces to a primary source: DOJ filings, trustee reports, a securities regulator, or the companies themselves.<\/p>\n

Headline result: about $4.4 billion stolen, about $1.1 billion recovered. A recovery rate of roughly 25%.<\/p>\n

But averages lie. The median hack in this dataset returned about 6%. Two spectacular recoveries do most of the heavy lifting. In most cases, the thieves keep nearly everything.<\/p>\n

The full dataset<\/h2>\n

Exchange hacks: what was stolen vs. what came back<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Exchange<\/th>\nYear<\/th>\nStolen (at the time)<\/th>\nRecovered<\/th>\nRecovery rate<\/th>\nCustomers made whole?<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Mt. Gox<\/td>\n2014<\/td>\n850,000 BTC (~$470M)<\/td>\n141,686 BTC distributed to creditors<\/td>\n16.7%<\/td>\nPartially, a decade later<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bitfinex<\/td>\n2016<\/td>\n119,754 BTC (~$72M)<\/td>\n94,643 BTC seized by DOJ, court-ordered back<\/td>\n79%<\/td>\nYes, within 8 months<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NiceHash<\/td>\n2017<\/td>\n4,640 BTC (~$55M)<\/td>\n0 from the thieves<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\nYes, from company profits<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Coincheck<\/td>\n2018<\/td>\n523M XEM (~$530M)<\/td>\n~0 from the thieves<\/td>\n~0%<\/td>\n~80%, from company funds<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
KuCoin<\/td>\n2020<\/td>\n$281M<\/td>\n$236M<\/td>\n84%<\/td>\nYes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Poly Network<\/td>\n2021<\/td>\n$611M<\/td>\n~$611M returned by the hacker<\/td>\n~100%<\/td>\nYes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ronin<\/td>\n2022<\/td>\n$625M<\/td>\n~$35.8M seized<\/td>\n5.7%<\/td>\nYes, by Sky Mavis<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
DMM Bitcoin<\/td>\n2024<\/td>\n4,502.9 BTC (~$305M)<\/td>\n~0<\/td>\n~0%<\/td>\nYes, company guaranteed<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bybit<\/td>\n2025<\/td>\n401,347 ETH (~$1.46B)<\/td>\n~$80M frozen or recovered<\/td>\n5.5%<\/td>\nYes, exchange absorbed it<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Fraud collapses, for comparison<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Exchange<\/th>\nYear<\/th>\nOwed<\/th>\nRecovered<\/th>\nRecovery rate<\/th>\nCustomers made whole?<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
FTX<\/td>\n2022<\/td>\n~$11.2B in claims<\/td>\n$14.7-16.5B<\/td>\n119% of petition-date claims<\/td>\nIn Nov 2022 dollars, yes<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
QuadrigaCX<\/td>\n2019<\/td>\n$215M (per OSC)<\/td>\n$46M identified or recovered<\/td>\n~21% of owed; ~13% of filed claims<\/td>\nNo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Five patterns in the data<\/h2>\n

1. The thief usually keeps the money<\/h3>\n

In 5 of the 9 hacks, under 6% of stolen funds were ever recovered from the attackers. NiceHash, Coincheck, and DMM Bitcoin recovered essentially zero from the thieves. Ronin and Bybit, both tied to North Korean hacking crews, sit at about 6% each. When a professional crew steals the coins, assume they are gone.<\/p>\n

2. The outliers are weird<\/h3>\n

The three best recovery rates all came from strange situations. Poly Network’s hacker returned nearly everything voluntarily and called it white hat behavior. KuCoin clawed back 84% by freezing tokens, upgrading smart contracts, and working with law enforcement before the funds could be laundered. Bitfinex’s 79% arrived six years later, when the FBI decrypted a cloud storage file holding over 2,000 private keys. None of these is a strategy you can count on.<\/p>\n

3. Customers usually get paid anyway, by the exchange<\/h3>\n

Here is the twist. In 7 of the 9 hacks, customers were made whole or nearly whole. Not because the thieves were caught. Because the exchange absorbed the loss from its own pocket. Bitfinex imposed a 36% haircut, then redeemed every BFX token within 8 months. NiceHash diverted its profits to users for three years until every bitcoin was repaid. Coincheck paid out of its own capital. Ronin, DMM, Bybit, and KuCoin all covered user balances. The lesson is not that hacks are safe. It is that you are betting on the exchange’s balance sheet, not on justice.<\/p>\n

4. Bitcoin going up distorts everything<\/h3>\n

Mt. Gox lost 850,000 BTC worth about $470 million in 2014. Creditors are receiving 141,686 BTC, a 16.7% recovery in bitcoin terms. Priced in 2024 dollars, that is over $8 billion returned on a $470 million loss. Bitfinex’s seized 94,643 BTC was worth about $3.6 billion at seizure, against a $72 million theft. Recovery math in crypto is meaningless unless you fix the unit. We used native units throughout this dataset.<\/p>\n

5. Fraud pays worse than hacking, for victims<\/h3>\n

FTX creditors are set to receive 119% of their claims, but priced in dollars at November 2022, the bottom of the bear market. Anyone holding BTC or SOL on FTX missed the entire bull run. QuadrigaCX victims got about 13 cents on the dollar of their filed claims. When the exchange itself is the thief, there is no hacker to catch and no balance sheet to bill.<\/p>\n

Methodology<\/h2>\n